WTPZ43 KNHC 240249 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016

800 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016



GEORGETTE'S CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IMPROVED THIS EVENING, AS A BAND

OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WRAPPED MORE THAN 360 DEGREES AROUND

THE CENTER.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SPANNED A WIDE RANGE:  55 KT

FROM SAB DVORAK, 58 KT FROM CIMSS AMSU, 65 KT FROM TAFB DVORAK, AND

75 KT FROM CIMSS ADT.  A BLEND OF THESE GIVES 65 KT, MAKING

GEORGETTE A HURRICANE.  A 2227Z CIRA AMSU SIZE ANALYSIS INDICATED

THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINED SMALL WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS EXTENDING OUT ONLY TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.



CONTINUED STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED, BUT ONLY FOR ANOTHER

DAY OR SO WHILE GEORGETTE TRAVERSES OVER WARM SSTS, THROUGH MOIST

UNSTABLE AIR, AND EXPERIENCES LOW TROPOSPHERIC VERTICAL SHEAR.

STARTING ON MONDAY, IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS WILL

NO LONGER BE CONDUCIVE AND GRADUAL TO STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD

OCCUR.  AROUND DAY FOUR, THE COMBINATION OF COLD SSTS AND A DRY

STABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO THE SYSTEM LOSING ITS DEEP CONVECTION

AND BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

SHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IN A DAY, THEN INDICATES A

QUICKER DEMISE.  THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE HWRF

DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODEL AND THE LGEM STATISTICAL TECHNIQUE.



GEORGETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KT, IN THE MID-LEVEL

EASTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. AN

UPPER-LEVEL LOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF GEORGETTE

AND HELPS TO INDUCE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION TO THE=