WTPZ43 KNHC 230833 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016

200 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016



GEORGETTE'S CONVECTIVE CANOPY HAS EXPANDED AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE

SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  AN 0515 UTC AMSU PASS REVEALED A

MID-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE, BUT THIS FEATURE APPEARED TO BE DISPLACED

TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BY MORE THAN HALF A DEGREE OF

LONGITUDE.  BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB,

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.



SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A LITTLE MORE THAN 15 KT OF EASTERLY

SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING GEORGETTE.  HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED

TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH, FALLING BELOW 10 KT IN 18-24 HOURS, AND SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN HIGHER THAN 26C FOR ABOUT THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.  THEREFORE, SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AT

FIRST, WITH A FASTER INTENSIFICATION RATE LIKELY ONCE THE SHEAR

HAS ABATED.  SINCE LITTLE TO NO SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN 36-48 HOURS,

THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE TOP END OF THE GUIDANCE

SPECTRUM, CLOSEST TO THE HWRF MODEL.  AFTER 48 HOURS, STEADY

WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO COOLER SSTS, INCREASING SHEAR, AND

A DRIER ATMOSPHERE.



THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN TOUGH TO LOCATE TONIGHT, SO AN

INITIAL MOTION OF 290/11 KT IS MAINTAINED FOR CONTINUITY'S SAKE.

THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO

WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO A POSITION BETWEEN CALIFORNIA AND HAWAII DURING

THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  GEORGETTE SHOULD THEREFORE TURN NORTHWESTWARD

AND SLOW DOWN AFTER 36 HOURS.  THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG

THE TRACK GUIDANCE DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE