WTPZ42 KNHC 271439

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  24

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016

800 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016



Frank is quickly weakening today, with a shrinking area of deep

convection near and northwest of the center.  A blend of the

TAFB/SAB Dvorak T/CI numbers gives an initial wind speed of 55 kt

for this advisory.  Steady weakening is expected due to the cyclone

moving over progressively colder waters and into a more stable

airmass. The official intensity forecast remains near the latest

model consensus, IVCN, and Frank should degenerate into a remnant

low by tomorrow afternoon.



Microwave data indicate the storm continues moving 295/10 kt. Frank

should turn westward and slow down as the cyclone becomes a weak and

shallow remnant low steered by the low-level ridge.  Models have

shifted a little southward on this cycle, and the official forecast

follows that trend.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  27/1500Z 22.7N 120.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  28/0000Z 23.4N 122.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  28/1200Z 24.2N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  29/0000Z 24.8N 124.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  29/1200Z 25.0N 125.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  30/1200Z 24.8N 127.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Blake