WTPZ42 KNHC 261458 RRA

TCDEP2



HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  20

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016

800 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016



AFTER STRUGGLING DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS, FRANK HAS BECOME MUCH

BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT, WITH DEEPER AND MORE SYMMETRIC

CONVECTION.  A SSM/IS PASS FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO ALSO INDICATED

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERTICALLY ALIGNED EYE FEATURE. THE 12Z

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND

SAB.  SINCE THAT TIME, THE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED IN

SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE FORMATION OF A VISIBLE EYE, SO THE

INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 65 KT.



FRANK HAS LESS THAN 24 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES OVER SSTS COOLER THAN

26C.  ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST, THE HURRICANE COULD

BECOME STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE SOMETIME BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS ON

WEDNESDAY DUE TO MUCH COOLER WATERS.  FRANK SHOULD LOSE ALL OF ITS

CONVECTION AND TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS

WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS COLD WATERS OF 22-23C. THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED

FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL CONDITIONS, THEN

IS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS

IVCN.



THE HURRICANE HAS FINALLY STARTED TO MOVE, ESTIMATED AT 290/8 KT.

THIS GENERAL TRACK IS PREDICTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE

FRANK IS STEERED BY A RESTRENGTHENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AFTER 48

HOURS, FRANK IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD WHEN IT BECOMES A

SHALLOW REMNANT LOW.  LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC

FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT AT LONG RANGE NEAR THE

DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.



FRANK IS THE 5TH HURRICANE TO FORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING=