WTPZ42 KNHC 231441 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016

900 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016



NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUE TO AFFECT FRANK, WITH THE LATEST

MICROWAVE DATA SHOWING THE CENTER REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF

THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT

MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 55 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST

IS BECOMING A LITTLE TRICKIER SINCE THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING

MORE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  CONSEQUENTLY, FRANK HAS LESS OF A CHANCE

TO INTENSIFY, AND COULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY SOONER THAN

PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THE NEW WIND SPEED FORECAST HAS BEEN

REDUCED 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THESE

CHANGES, BUT IS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.  MARGINAL

SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FRANK TO WEAKEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, AND

REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST AT DAY 5 DUE TO THE COOL WATERS.



SOME TIMELY MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT.  FRANK SHOULD REMAIN BENEATH THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH WILL LIKELY STEER

THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THAT TIME EXCEPT FOR

A BRIEF WESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED IN A COUPLE DAYS OF DAYS DUE TO THE

RIDGE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING.  THE STORM WILL BE PASSING WELL

SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS

AND BE NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND LATER TODAY.  GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE

SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO

THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK ARE PROBABLY ALREADY AFFECTING THE=