WTXS31 PGTW 190800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 55.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 55.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.2S 52.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 16.1S 51.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 54.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AS THE WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION IS DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE ROBUST OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION FOR 12 MORE HOURS BEFORE INCREASING VWS DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z.//