WTIO30 FMEE 190034



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/1/20162017

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ABELA)



2.A POSITION 2016/07/19 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 56.7 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL

SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 90 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 90

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/07/19 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/07/20 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

36H: 2016/07/20 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

48H: 2016/07/21 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW







2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=2.5 CI=3.0-



OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS GOT MUCH MORE WARMER,

LOOSING ITS ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH GOOD UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE

DRYER ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL

STOPPED ABELA'S DEEPENING. LAST MICROWAVE DATA (GMI 2206Z) CONFIRM

THE DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE WITH A LARGER EYE IN 37GHZ. IT IS

LIKELY THAT ITS SMALL SIZE HELPED IN THE FASTER DECAY.



ABELA KEEPS ON HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN SOUTH-WEST. THE

AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST A TRACK

FOLLOWING THIS DIRECTION, STEERED BY AN AREA OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS IN

THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AROUND MIDDAY, THE STORM IS FORECASTED

TO PASS LESS THAN 50KM FROM TROMELIN ISLAND. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS

BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO OF MAJOR DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, AVNO

PARTICULARLY.



ALONG THIS TRACK, ABELA IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ANYMORE, IN AN

ENVIRONMENT LESS AND LESS CONDUCIVE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO FILL UP

QUICKLY EVEN IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BEACAUSE OF

THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH.



FIRST RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ABELA REACHED MAURICE ISLAND AND WILL

AFFECT REUNION ISLAND TODAY.=