WTPZ41 KNHC 192036 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016

200 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016



ESTELLE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING.  THE

TROPICAL STORM STILL HAS SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION AROUND

THE CIRCULATION BUT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO

IMPROVEMENT IN THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM

TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED TO T3.5, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

SET TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ESTELLE'S INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE

NOT BEEN GOLDEN SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS REFUSED TO STRENGTHEN

DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A SHORT

WINDOW IN WHICH ESTELLE COULD STRENGTHEN, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF

INNER-CORE STRUCTURE, IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT

INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR.  AS A RESULT, THE NHC FORECAST NOW SHOWS

LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED TONIGHT.  WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON

THURSDAY AND CONTINUE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS ESTELLE

MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT

LOW WITHIN 72 HOURS.



THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR

REASONING.  ESTELLE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE

SOUTH OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS STEERED ALL OF THE

JULY EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WESTWARD TO WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD.  THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FINALLY FORECAST

TO WEAKEN IN ABOUT 72 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ESTELLE OR ITS

REMNANT LOW TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 4.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS

VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR AN AVERAGE OF THE=