WTPZ41 KNHC 191444 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016

800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016



ESTELLE HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH AN EYE-FEATURE

NOTED IN AN EARLY MORNING GPM MICROWAVE OVERPASS.  HOWEVER, THE

CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS NOT BEEN

PARTICULARITY DEEP OR PERSISTENT.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM

TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0, BUT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE LOWER AND UNTIL

THE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AROUND THE CENTER, I HAVE

ELECTED TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 55 KT.



ESTELLE HAS A LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS REMAINING OVER WARM

WATER AND IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  MOST OF THE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH, BUT THE NHC

FORECAST WILL ONCE AGAIN SHOW ESTELLE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH

GIVEN THE GOOD LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AND SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE

CONDITIONS.  AFTER 24 HOURS, ESTELLE WILL BE MOVING OVER

PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC

CONDITIONS.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION

INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.



THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTELLE IS

EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO THE SOUTH

OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.  A

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN

140W AND 150W IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE

AFTER DAY 3.  AS A RESULT, ESTELLE IS PREDICTED TO TURN

NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE

CONTINUED TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST=