WTPZ41 KNHC 182036 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016

200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016



BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH ESTELLE HAVE BECOME A LITTLE

BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE TROPICAL STORM STILL LACKS

AN INNER CORE.  IN FACT, THIS AFTERNOON'S ASCAT DATA CONTINUES TO

SHOW A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS

FROM TAFB, SAB, AND UW/CIMSS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST

24 HOURS, SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 60 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY.



ESTELLE'S REFUSAL TO INTENSIFY HAS LIKELY BEEN THE RESULT

OF SHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR.  SINCE THE SHEAR

APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED AND THE TROPICAL STORM IS PREDICTED TO

REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR ANOTHER 36-48 H, ONE WOULD THINK THAT

ESTELLE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN AND FINALLY ATTAIN HURRICANE

STATUS.  HOWEVER, THIS WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE CYCLONE

CONSOLIDATING INNER-CORE CONVECTION, WHICH IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO

FORECAST. IT MAY SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT THE NHC FORECAST

ONCE AGAIN CALLS FOR ESTELLE TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT

12 TO 24 HOURS.  AFTER 36 H, GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS AND A LESS

FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. A FASTER

RATE OF REDUCTION IN WIND SPEED SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE FORECAST

PERIOD WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SSTS BELOW 24C, AND ESTELLE IS

PREDICTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON DAY 4.



RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT ESTELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ESTELLE SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD=