WTPZ41 KNHC 172049 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016

300 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016



RECENT SATELLITE DATA HAVE GIVEN MIXED SIGNALS ON THE OVERALL

STRUCTURE OF ESTELLE.  IN VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES, A BAND OF

CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER, AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A

RAGGED EYE HAS APPEARED.  HOWEVER, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY

SUGGEST THAT THE STRUCTURE IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED TO WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER,

LIKELY THE RESULT OF CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE

T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT,

BUT, GIVEN THE LACK OF INNER-CORE ORGANIZATION, THE INITIAL WIND

SPEED IS SET TO 60 KT.  RECENT ASCAT DATA REVEALED A LARGE RADIUS OF

MAXIMUM WINDS, AND LARGER AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, WHICH

REQUIRED AN OUTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE WIND RADII.



ESTELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT

7 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME AS THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ESTELLE WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN

PORTION OF THE RIDGE BY DAY 5 AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS

PREDICTED NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE IS

STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED

NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE.  THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY,

BUT IT LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST

GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.



THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED=