WTPZ41 KNHC 170847 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016

300 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016



A LARGE INCREASE IN BOTH THE AREAL COVERAGE AND DEPTH OF THE CENTRAL

CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE

TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A IRREGULARLY SHAPED CDO. CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE

ALLEGED CENTER HAVE BEEN -80C AND COLDER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF

HOURS. RECENT SSMI/S AND AMSU MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT THE

LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED, AND HAS ALSO

MOVED CLOSER TO THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AND FARTHER INTO THE CDO.

AS A RESULT, SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE

INCREASED TO A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT. HOWEVER, UW-CIMSS ADT AND NHC

OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ONLY T2.8/41 KT AND T3.0/45 KT,

RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES STILL

INDICATED SOME SOUTHWARD TILT TO THE MID-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO MODEST

NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN

INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WESTWARD OR 280/08 KT. A MOTION

BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS AS

ESTELLE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TO

ITS NORTH. AFTER THAT TIME, A STRONG MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 25N/119W IS FORECAST TO DIG

SOUTHWESTWARD AND ERODE THE RIDGE, ALLOWING ESTELLE TO TURN

NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.

THE NEW NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED, AND THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND=