WTPZ41 KNHC 160834 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016

300 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016



SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN

ORGANIZATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH A COMPLEX OF

CONVECTIVE BANDS PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE

SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER, THERE IS NO

CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME.

SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35

KT FROM SAB.  IN ADDITION, THERE ARE RECENT AMSU INTENSITY

ESTIMATES NEAR 40 KT.  THUS, THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9.  ESTELLE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HOURS OR SO.  BEYOND THAT TIME, THE

DYNAMICAL MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE.

THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER RIDGE DUE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE

NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, WITH ESTELLE CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE WITH ESTELLE TURNING MORE

WESTWARD.  OVERALL, THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED

A LITTLE TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND A LITTLE TO

THE SOUTH FROM 72-120 HOURS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST NORTH

OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK, LYING SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE

THROUGH 72 HOURS AND LYING NORTH OF IT FROM 72-120 HOURS.



THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ESTELLE WILL BE IN A LIGHT WIND

SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SO THE INTENSITY

FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  IF ESTELLE

FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK, IT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE COLD WAKE=