WTPZ45 KNHC 151452 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016

800 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016



DARBY'S EYE BECAME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED EARLIER THIS MORNING,

WITH AN ELONGATED TAIL OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE EASTERN

PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE NOW 4.5/77

KT FROM TAFB, 5.0/90 KT FROM SAB, AND 5.1/92 KT FROM THE UW-CIMSS

ADT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE EYE APPEARS TO HAVE OPENED UP A BIT ON THE LATEST SATELLITE

PICTURES, SO IT'S POSSIBLE THAT DARBY MAY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK

INTENSITY.



THE HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE

LESS THAN 27C, AND THE OCEAN BENEATH THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE

COLDER THAN 26C WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR

CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DECREASE, DARBY IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS

INTENSITY OR ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

AFTER 48 HOURS, MORE MARKED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO SSTS

GETTING AS COLD AS 24-25C.  NO CHANGES TO THE NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST, WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND

FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE EARLY AND THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS

LATE, WERE REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.



DARBY APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOWED DOWN,

AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8 KT.  AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS

EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR

TWO.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO CONTINUE MOVING

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, BUT THEREAFTER A WESTWARD=