WTPZ45 KNHC 150246 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016

800 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016



DARBY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS

WITH A RAGGED 30-NMI-DIAMETER EYE HAVING APPEARED WITHIN THE CENTRAL

DENSE OVERCAST. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND IN ALL

QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT BASED

ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77 KT

FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 83

KT AND 85 KT FROM AMSU AND ADT, RESPECTIVELY.



DARBY'S INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11 KT AFTER SMOOTHING THROUGH

SOME WOBBLES IN THE TRACK. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE

TO PREVIOUS TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS

IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON DARBY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO

WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO A MORE DUE

WEST MOTION AFTER THAT AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE

BUILDS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST

IS BASICALLY JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND

REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE, FOLLOWING THE

CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.



ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KT OR

LESS THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD, SSTS DECREASING BELOW

27C AND THE LARGE EYE OF DARBY ARGUE AGAINST ANY SIGNIFICANT

STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT, SSTS

DECREASING TO LESS THAN 26C SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING BY 36 H

AND BEYOND. HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS

SHOULD ACT TO PREVENT A MORE TYPICAL RAPID WEAKENING TREND FROM=