WTPZ45 KNHC 142043 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016

200 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016



DARBY IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  VISIBLE

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING

ALMOST 1.5 TIMES AROUND THE CENTER, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A BANDING-TYPE EYE.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK

ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR

INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 75 KT.  DARBY MAY STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH

SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS, BUT THE SHEAR THEN

DECREASES AFTER THAT TIME.  ON THE OTHER HAND, OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT

VALUES AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE FALL OFF PRECIPITOUSLY IN ABOUT 12

HOURS.  CONSIDERING THESE COMPETING FACTORS, SOME GRADUAL

STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY

SLOW WEAKENING UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO COOLER

SSTS.  THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE SHIPS AND

FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE, WHICH ARE AT THE TOP END OF THE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE.



DARBY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD, OR 280/12 KT.  STRONG MID-LEVEL

RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR

MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, KEEPING DARBY ON A WESTWARD OR PERHAPS

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH THROUGH DAY 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS

TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS,

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED NORTHWARD ON THIS

CYCLE, ESPECIALLY THROUGH DAY 3.  THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK

FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD, BUT IT IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN=