WTPZ45 KNHC 140237 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016

900 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016



DARBY HAS DEVELOPED A LARGE CDO PATTERN AND A 2314Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE

PASS INDICATED A 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYE EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF

THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A

CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT

AND AMSU ESTIMATES WERE T4.4/75 KT AND 72 KT, RESPECTIVELY. THE

ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE VALUES.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10 KT. THE EXPANSIVE DEEP-LAYER

RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DARBY IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO

REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE

NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP DARBY MOVING IN A

GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

OTHER THAN SOME DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED, THERE REMAINS VERY

LITTLE CROSS-TRACK DIFFERENCE NOTED AMONG THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS.

THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN EXTENSION OF

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE

GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.



DARBY IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO,

AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS A RESULT DURING THAT TIME.

BY 36-48 H, DARBY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS COOLER SSTS NEAR 26 DEG C

AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS, SO LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY IS

EXPECTED. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER THAT TIME AS

THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER 25-26 DEG C SSTS. HOWEVER, THE WEAKENING=