WTPZ45 KNHC 120243 RRA

TCDEP5



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016

900 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016



CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH FIVE-E HAS INCREASED IN

ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING.  ACCORDINGLY, THE SAB AND TAFB DVORAK

CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO A 2.0 FROM BOTH

AGENCIES, CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  EARLIER

SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTED HIGHER WINDS THAN GIVEN BY DVORAK

ESTIMATES, HOWEVER, SO THE SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM.



THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH FIVE-E IS MOVING OVER AND THROUGH - QUITE

WARM SSTS, A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE, AND MODERATE TO LOW TROPOSPHERIC

VERTICAL SHEAR - IS LIKELY TO PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING

THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  AROUND DAYS 4 AND 5, HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE

SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING THE COOL WAKE PRODUCED BY HURRICANES BLAS AND

CELIA.  THIS SUB-26 DEG C WATER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY

CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AT THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY

FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO AN HWRF DYNAMICAL/SHIPS STATISTICAL MODEL

BLEND THROUGH 72 H, AND TO SHIPS ALONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5, AND IS VERY

SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.



THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING AT 320/8 KT, THOUGH THE CURRENT

POSITION AND MOTION ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF

USEFUL MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASSES THIS EVENING.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD

BEND TO A DUE WEST HEADING BY TOMORROW, AS THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO

ITS NORTH BUILDS IN AND STRENGTHENS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY

CLUSTERED THROUGH ALL FIVE DAYS AND THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS

NEARLY THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE TROPICAL=