WTPA43 PHFO 241515 RRA

TCDCP3



TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  52

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052016

500 AM HST SUN JUL 24 2016



THE CENTER OF DARBY IS DIFFICULT TO FIND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO REORGANIZE AFTER ITS

ENCOUNTER WITH THE BIG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY. EVEN AFTER THE CENTER

EMERGED OVER THE OCEAN WEST OF THE ISLAND SATURDAY EVENING, MOST OF

THE CIRCULATION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WAS DISRUPTED AS IT FLOWED

AROUND THE VOLCANIC PEAKS OF NEARLY 14 THOUSAND FEET. A 1153Z VIIRS

IMAGE CONFIRMED OUR EARLIER ESTIMATE OF THE CENTER BASED ON INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA. THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES

ESTIMATES OF CURRENT INTENSITY RANGED FROM 2.0/30 KT AT JTWC AND SAB

TO 2.5/35 KT AT PHFO. THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS 2.1/31 KT. WE ARE

MAINTAINING DARBY AS A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY, SINCE

THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ANOTHER FLIGHT

BY THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO

DARBY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE

THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS ITS CIRCULATION

CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE WARM OCEAN WATERS WEST OF THE BIG

ISLAND.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/08 KT. THIS WEST-NORTHWEST

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BE A TURN TO

THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. THIS NORTHWEST MOTION WILL THEN LIKELY

CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING

THIS GENERAL MOTION DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER=