WTPA43 PHFO 240305 RRA

TCDCP3



TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  50

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052016

500 PM HST SAT JUL 23 2016



THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISANCE SQUADRON FLEW THROUGH DARBY FOR A

GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY, AND DEPARTED THE STORM JUST BEFORE THE

POORLY-DEFINED CENTER CAME ASHORE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF

THE BIG ISLAND NEAR PAHALA AROUND 2 PM.  THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO

BE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE PRESSURES WERE RISING EACH TIME THE PLANE SAMPLED THE

SYSTEM, AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS INDICATED THAT DARBY'S INTENSITY

HAD WEAKENED TO NEAR 35 KT, AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR

THIS ADVISORY.  ANOTHER RECONNAISANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR EARLY

SUNDAY MORNING TO DETERMINE WHAT REMAINS OF DARBY'S CIRCULATION

AFTER IT EMERGES FROM THE BIG ISLAND.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/09 KT, WITH THE

POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF DARBY CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE OVER

INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.  AFTER EMERGING FROM THE BIG

ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING, A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED,

WITH DARBY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD.  DARBY IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AWEAKNESS IN

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,AS A DEEP-

LAYER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FAR NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN

ISLANDS.  WHILE THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED

SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, IT CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STEADY

NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE

PREVIOUS AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.



AS THE CENTER OF DARBY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND, THERE IS=