WTPA43 PHFO 221447 RRA

TCDCP3



TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  44

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052016

500 AM HST FRI JUL 22 2016



AFTER DECREASING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, DEEP CONVECTION AROUND

DARBY HAS ONCE AGAIN FLARED ALONG THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. EXPOSED

LOW CLOUD BANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE SHOW A REASONABLY

WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST.

OBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AT

3.0/45 KNOTS FROM ALL THREE ANALYSIS CENTERS (HFO, JTWC AND SAB).

AN 0718 UTC QSCAT PASS SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF 45 KNOT WINDS ACROSS

THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH A SMALL HANDFUL OF 50 KNOT BARBS

THROWN IN. WE WILL DROP THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY BASED ON THIS PASS AND EAGERLY AWAIT 53RD WEATHER

RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON DATA, SCHEDULED FOR ARRIVAL LATER THIS

MORNING, TO CLARIFY DARBY INTENSITY.



INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10 KT, PARTIALLY DERIVED BY REBESTING THE

PREVIOUS THREE BEST TRACK POINTS. WHILE LAST EVENING'S QSCAT PASS

DEPICTED A CENTER LIKELY TOO FAR SOUTH, THE OVERALL IMPRESSION FROM

A GROWING BODY OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY WAS THAT DARBY WAS ACTUALLY

SEVERAL TENTHS OF A DEGREE SOUTH OF WHERE WE THOUGH IT WAS. DARBY

WAS RELOCATED FOR THIS ADVISORY. A 1223 UTC SSMI PASS, RECEIVED TOO

LATE TO USE FOR THIS ADVISORY, HINTS THAT DARBY MAY NEED TO BE

RELOCATED WESTWARD LATER. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED DEPICTING

A GENTLY CURVING PATH ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS

BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION IS GFDL, WHICH WANTS TO

DIVERT DARBY ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD BEYOND 24 HOURS. OUR FORECAST

TRACK FITS IN THE ENVELOPE, CLOSELY FOLLOWING TVCN CONSENSUS.=