WTPZ44 KNHC 150242 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016

800 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016



DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN CELIA HAS BEEN STEADILY DETERIORATING WITH

ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF MODERATELY COLD CLOUD TOPS EXISTING IN THE

NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  CONSISTENT WITH THIS DOWNWARD TREND, THE SAB

AND TAFB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DROPPED TO CURRENT

INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 2.0 AND 2.5, RESPECTIVELY, SUGGESTING AN

INTENSITY OF 30-35 KT.  HOWEVER, A RECENT ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER PASS

INDICATED THAT PEAK WINDS NEAR 50 KT WERE STILL OCCURRING.  ASSUMING

SOME WEAKENING SINCE THAT TIME, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT

45 KT.



DESPITE THE RESILIENCE OF THE VORTEX TODAY, CELIA SHOULD SOON

SUCCUMB TO THE EFFECTS OF COOL 24-25 DEG C SSTS, A STABLE

ATMOSPHERE, AND CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  THUS IT IS

ANTICIPATED THE THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME

A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON FRIDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY

SATURDAY.  DUE IN PART TO THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRESSURE

GRADIENT TO CELIA'S NORTH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN

PEAK WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE IVCN CONSENSUS, IN WHICH THE

STATISTICAL MODELS DISSIPATE CELIA MORE QUICKLY, WHILE THE

DYNAMICAL MODELS HOLD ON TO CELIA PERHAPS TOO ROBUSTLY.



CELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KT DUE TO THE

STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST.

AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS, IT SHOULD BE CARRIED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL

EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD=