WTPZ44 KNHC 130857 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016

200 AM PDT WED JUL 13 2016



WHILE CELIA CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY, SEVERAL

RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE THIS FEATURE IS DISPLACED TO

THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT, AND A RECENT CIMSS AMSU

ESTIMATE IS 74 KT.  HOWEVER, A PARTIAL ASCAT-B OVERPASS SHOWED

MAXIMUM WINDS OF 55 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER.  GIVEN THESE DATA AND

THE LEVEL OF DISORGANIZATION IMPLIED BY THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY,

CELIA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 60-KT WINDS.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10.  A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS

PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CELIA MOVING

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE

GUIDANCE BECOMES SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT.  THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS ARE

ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND FORECAST A MORE

WESTWARD MOTION, WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE NORTH SIDE AND FORECASTS

A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  OVERALL, THE CONSENSUS

MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AFTER 36 HOURS.  BASED ON

THIS, THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH

AND SHOWS A JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST MOTION FROM 48-120 HOURS.



CELIA SHOULD ENCOUNTER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE

NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  AFTER 72 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO

ENCOUNTER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR EVEN AS IT MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY

WARMER WATER.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE CELIA TO WEAKEN FURTHER,=