WTPZ44 KNHC 121432 RRA

TCDEP4



HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016

800 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016



ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED, THE CONVECTION

HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE THE

CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  THE EYE, OR WHAT IS LEFT

OF IT, HAS BECOME LARGE AND RAGGED WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION

LOCATED WITHIN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST. GIVEN THAT THE NUMBERS

FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED TO 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE,

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT, WHICH IS AN INTENSITY

HIGHER THAN ONE CAN EXPECT FROM THESE NUMBERS. HOWEVER, DUE TO

CONTINUITY AND DVORAK CONSTRAINTS, THIS IS PROBABLY A GOOD ESTIMATE

AT THIS TIME.



CELIA IS MOVING TOWARD INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS, AND BEYOND 2

DAYS, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD

RESULT IN WEAKENING. MOST OF THE MODELS CALL FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING

AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST, WHICH IN FACT, IS VERY CLOSE TO THE

SHIPS MODEL.



CELIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 KT AROUND THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY A

LITTLE, AND THIS COULD FORCE CELIA ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY

TRACK LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,

CELIA SHOULD HAVE BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE, AND WILL LIKELY MOVE ON

A WESTWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST IS

VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONTINUES TO BE VERY

SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN

GOOD AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS=