WTPZ44 KNHC 120845 RRA

TCDEP4



HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016

200 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016



THE CLOUD PATTERN OF CELIA HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT, AS THE HURRICANE

APPEARS TO BE COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  A 50-60 N MI

WIDE EYE NOW IS EMBEDDED IN A RELATIVELY SMALL CENTRAL DENSE

OVERCAST, WHICH GIVES CELIA A SOMEWHAT ANNULAR APPEARANCE.

SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE

SINCE THE PAST ADVISORY, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT.



CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO TURN TO THE RIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS

NOW 300/9.  THE HURRICANE IS NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A

MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS

LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE SEEN IN

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 29N 151W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH

AND MOVE NORTHWARD AFTER 24-48 HOURS, WHICH WOULD ALLOW A RIDGE TO

BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS

DEVELOPMENT WOULD STEER CELIA IN A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IN THE

LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK

MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD FROM THEIR PREVIOUS

PREDICTIONS, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SIMILAR SMALL SHIFT.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS IN

THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.



CELIA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST INCREASING

NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 48 HOURS.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE

CELIA TO WEAKEN, AND ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS

SCENARIO.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH=