WTPZ44 KNHC 112042 RRA

TCDEP4



HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016

200 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016



DURING THE PAST 6 H, THE INNER-CORE REGION OF CELIA HAS UNDERGONE

MULTIPLE EVOLUTIONS FROM A BANDING EYE INTO A LARGE EYE THAT WAS

MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF AN ANNULAR HURRICANE TO WHAT HAS NOW BECOME

A 20-NMI CLOUD-FILLED EYE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)

ESTIMATES REMAIN T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND CIRA AND CIMSS

AMSU OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 87 KT AND 86 KT AT 1435Z,

RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THOSE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WERE

OBTAINED, THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY,

ESPECIALLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH TIGHTLY COILED CONVECTIVE

BANDS NOW CONCENTRATED WITHIN MAINLY 70 NMI OF THE CENTER. BASED ON

THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN

INCREASED TO 85 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08 KT. AS ANTICIPATED, CELIA HAS

SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT APPROACHES A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER

TONIGHT IS EXPECTED AS CELIA BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE DEVELOPING

WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS INDUCING THIS

WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 48-72 H AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH

OR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO RE-STRENGTHEN AND

GRADUALLY NUDGE CELIA BACK ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN THE 72-120 H

PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN EXCELLENT

AGREEMENT WITH VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS, AND THE NEW

FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE=