WTPZ44 KNHC 100845 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016

200 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016



THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF CELIA IS COMPLICATED TONIGHT.  THE

SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOWS A SMALL CDO FEATURE NEAR THE CENTER AND

CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER, WHICH

SUPPORTS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  HOWEVER,

A PAIR OF ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B PASSES BETWEEN 0445Z AND 0535Z SHOWED

WINDS OF ONLY 35-40 KT.  IN ADDITION, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS

THAT THE INNER CORE IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED YET, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW

LEVELS.  GIVEN THE ASCAT DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN

CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE ASCAT DATA

WERE ALSO USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII.



CELIA IS STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

AND BECOME A HURRICANE, AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SSTS OF 27-28C.

BEYOND 48 HOURS, THE SSTS COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH HAS

BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS

TRACK TAKES CELIA OVER SSTS BELOW 26C BY DAY 3 AND OVER SSTS AROUND

24C AT DAYS 4 AND 5, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.  THE NEW NHC

INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT IS ABOVE

ALL THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT TO CONTINUITY.

LATE IN THE PERIOD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ALSO ADJUSTED LOWER,

BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.



MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE ABOVE-MENTIONED ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT

CELIA IS LOCATED A BIT NORTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES WITH AN INITIAL

MOTION OF 280/10.  CELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT=