WTPZ44 KNHC 090235 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016

900 PM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016



VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CELIA HAS AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD

SHIELD, WITH A COMPACT CDO FEATURE AND MULTIPLE ELONGATED CLOUD

BANDS.  HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION IS DISJOINTED AND FAIRLY LIMITED

NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB

AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HOURS AGO, AND THE CIMSS ADT

ESTIMATE HAS ACTUALLY DECREASED DURING THAT TIME.  THEREFORE, THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 40 KT.



CELIA'S CENTER TEMPORARILY MOVED NORTHWARD EARLIER TODAY, BUT THE

AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IS ESTIMATED TO BE

NORTHWESTWARD, OR 305/8 KT.  A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD

FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE CELIA TO RESUME A WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION BUT AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED

THROUGH DAY 3.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN

PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY DAY 4, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE CELIA TO TURN

NORTHWESTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK MODEL

SPREAD IS LOW, ESPECIALLY THROUGH DAY 3, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST

IS VERY CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.  THIS UPDATED

FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 24

HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR CELIA'S RECENT NORTHWARD JOG.



HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE SST DATA INDICATE THAT CELIA'S CENTER IS

NOW MOVING OVER THE COLDEST PORTION OF BLAS'S COLD WAKE, WHICH COULD

BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE RELATIVE LACK OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.

CELIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE COLD WAKE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR

SO, AND ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT=