WTPZ44 KNHC 080838 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016

300 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016



THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING

BETTER ORGANIZED.  THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION

NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION AND IN CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE

NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30

KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES.

SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE THE

CYCLONE MOVES OVER A COOL PATCH OF SSTS IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE

BLAS.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE INTENSIFICATION RATE SHOULD INCREASE AS

THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM SSTS IN A LOW SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT.  IN 4 TO 5 DAYS, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND

SSTS COOL ALONG THE TRACK, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.  THE

NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE CONSENSUS AID

IVCN DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS

THROUGH 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER

THAN THE CONSENSUS BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS MODEL.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 275/05 GIVEN THE

UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE

STEERED MORE QUICKLY WESTWARD BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE

NORTH THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME, A WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE

SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD

THIS CYCLE IN THE SHORT TERM, IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF, WHICH IS NOW

WELL NORTH OF THE REST OF THE MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE NEW NHC=