WTPZ44 KNHC 072034 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016

300 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016



RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS AN

ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND IS STILL PRODUCING MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND

30 KT.  ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE

DURING THE DAY, IT IS NOT ALL THAT ORGANIZED AND IS PRIMARILY

CONFINED TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES.  IN ADDITION, DRY

AIR APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE

CIRCULATION.  SINCE THE CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE HAS NOT YET IMPROVED,

AND THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE COLD WAKE OF HURRICANE

BLAS, IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE MORE TIME BEFORE SIGNIFICANT

STRENGTHENING CAN OCCUR.  IN FACT, THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS, WHICH

SHOULD HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT, DO NOT SHOW

SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO.

THEREFORE, THE NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED

DOWNWARD DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE DEPRESSION

POSSIBLY NOT BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL TOMORROW.  MORE

SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS, BUT EVEN THAT

COULD BE TEMPERED BY INTERACTION WITH BLAS'S COLD WAKE.  THE NHC

INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 48

HOURS AND THEN NEAR THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.



THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED

A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED, AND THE INITIAL

MOTION IS NOW 275/7 KT.  A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING

WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A=