WTPZ44 KNHC 071436 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016

900 AM MDT THU JUL 07 2016



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E HAS NOT IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION SINCE

THE LAST ADVISORY.  A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED

NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, BUT OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE

CIRCULATION ARE LACKING BANDING CHARACTERISTICS.  THE INTENSITY

REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 FROM TAFB

AND SAB.



THE CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285/7 KT.  A

STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO

WESTWARD TO NEAR 130W, IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AND

REMAIN STATIONARY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THIS PATTERN IS

FORECAST TO DRIVE THE DEPRESSION ALMOST DUE WESTWARD BETWEEN 24

AND 72 HOURS.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A

BIT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE AND TURN

BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK MODELS, PARTICULARLY THE

GFS AND ECMWF, ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, WITH THOSE TWO MODELS

LESS THAN A DEGREE APART AT DAY 5.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST

WAS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5 TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF

CONSENSUS, BUT OTHERWISE THERE IS HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN

THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE 5-DAY PERIOD.



THE KEY CONCERN FOR THE DEPRESSION'S INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE COLD

WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY HURRICANE BLAS.  BASED ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE

DAILY GLOBAL SST ANALYSES, THE WATERS AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION HAVE

COOLED TO 26.5 DEGREES CELSIUS OR COLDER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST=