WTPA42 PHFO 160241 RRA

TCDCP2



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP042016

500 PM HST FRI JUL 15 2016



CELIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION

ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST INTENSITY FIXES FROM

PHFO AND JTWC ALL INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY

DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. THUS WE HAVE DOWNGRADED CELIA TO

A 30 KT POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY IN

THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.



THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER OF CELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEARLY

DUE WEST AT AROUND 11 KT. THIS WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CELIA WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED

IN MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTH OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED

FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BY AROUND DAYS 4 AND 5,

THE REMNANTS OF CELIA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MAKE A TURN TOWARD

THE NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM WILL THEN LIE FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE

HIGH'S CENTER. ONLY SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED

DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO

THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL

CONSENSUS.



CELIA HAS BEEN MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 24C,

AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STABLE AIRMASS AS WELL. SLIGHTLY WARMER

SSTS AROUND 25C LIE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, BUT SHIPS GUIDANCE AND

GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A FURTHER INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT

REGENERATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS DO MAINTAIN

A DISTINCT REMNANT LOW THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH NEAR 30=