WTPA42 PHFO 151441 RRA

TCDCP2



TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP042016

500 AM HST FRI JUL 15 2016



CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, WITH INFRARED AND

FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST, WHILE THE DISSIPATING

REMNANTS OF EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION ROTATE AROUND AN APPARENT

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FARTHER TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED

TO BETWEEN 1.0/25 KT AND 2.0/30 KT, A 15/0624 UTC ASCAT PASS

SAMPLED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, AND FOUND A

SIGNIFICANT AREA OF 30 KT WINDS EXTENDING A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE

WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. ALSO, AN EARLIER 14/1912 UTC

ASCAT PASS FOUND AREAS OF 45 TO 50 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN

SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 35 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY.



THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST AS EXPECTED, AND

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11 KT. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.

THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW

FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK, WITH SOME

SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



CELIA HAS BEEN MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 24C, AND

IS EMBEDDED IN A STABLE AIRMASS AS WELL. SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS

AROUND 25C LIE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, BUT SHIPS GUIDANCE AND

THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A FURTHER INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL=