WTPZ43 KNHC 081450 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016

800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016



DESPITE BEING OVER COOL WATER, THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH

BLAS REMAINS DEEP WITH CLOUD TOPS BELOW -70C. RECENT MICROWAVE

DATA SHOW THAT THE EYE OF BLAS IS STILL INTACT AND IT HAS

OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS

MORNING.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY

DECREASING AND A BLEND OF THE LATEST ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL

WIND SPEED OF 85 KT.  THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS

BELOW 24C AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE

NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING AND

BLAS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY SATURDAY,

AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.



BLAS IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300/9 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS

EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE

EXTENDING WESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL

LOW NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.  AS BLAS WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE

VERTICALLY SHALLOW SYSTEM, IT SHOULD TURN BACK WESTWARD, THEN

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW IN 48 TO 72

HOURS.  THE BULK OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD

AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND, AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN

THAT DIRECTION.  THE UPDATED TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MODEL

ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS, BUT IS NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS

AFTER THAT TIME OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND

CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS=