WTPZ43 KNHC 070844 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016

200 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2016



BLAS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION,

WITH A DISTINCT 20 N MI WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD

CONVECTIVE TOPS.  OVERALL, THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN STEADY-STATE FOR

THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO, CONSISTENT WITH SOME ANNULAR HURRICANE

CHARACTERISTICS SUCH AS MINIMAL CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A LARGE EYE.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 110 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS OF T5.5/6.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.



THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE

STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, WHICH

SHOULD RESULT IN THE ONSET OF WEAKENING.  WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE

AFTER THAT TIME, WITH BLAS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 24C

IN 48 HOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATE IN THE

PERIOD, AND BLAS SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 4 DAYS, OR PERHAPS A

BIT SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST IVCN

INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09, AS BLAS CONTINUES TO BE

STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DISTANT MID-LEVEL

RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO

TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 24-36 HOURS AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF

THE RIDGE, AND THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS

SCENARIO.  THROUGH 48 HOURS THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT

NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOLLOWING THE LATEST TREND IN THE

GUIDANCE.  AFTERWARD, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUED

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AS BLAS=