WTPZ43 KNHC 060836 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016

200 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2016



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BLAS HAS DEGRADED SINCE THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY, AS THE CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING THE EYE HAD WARMED AND

SHRUNK.  THE EYE, HOWEVER, REMAINS DISTINCT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 110 KT, WHICH IS A LITTLE

ABOVE A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK CI AND FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB

AND SAB.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE FORECAST

TRACK, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING, ALBEIT AT A SLOW PACE

DURING THE FIRST DAY OR SO.  AFTER 24 HOURS THE RATE OF WEAKENING

SHOULD INCREASE AS SSTS FALL BELOW 27C.  BLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME

A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS AND A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE

LATEST LGEM AND IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10, AS BLAS HAS BEGUN TO GAIN

SOME LATITUDE.  BLAS SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48

HOURS WHILE BEING STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO.  AFTER THAT TIME THE MODEL

SPREAD INCREASES.  THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HWRF AND

GFDL, SHOWS BLAS TURNING NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD AS IT

INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN BLAS AND THE

UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND HAS THE CYCLONE TURNING WESTWARD AT DAYS 4-5.

GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, THE NHC TRACK FORECAST

WILL STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO EXTREMES AND SHOWS A=