WTPZ43 KNHC 060233 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016

800 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016



BLAS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BLAS

HAS A TYPICAL APPEARANCE OF A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH A DISTINCT EYE

SURROUNDED BY A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE

DVORAK CI-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC WERE 6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND

RECENT ADT VALUES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE A

LITTLE HIGHER.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE CONTINUED

IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE TIME OF THE CLASSIFICATIONS,

THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 120 KT.  THIS MAKES BLAS A CATEGORY

4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.



THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED A LITTLE IN FORWARD SPEED, AND THE

LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11 KT.  THE MODELS ARE IN

VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO IN SHOWING BLAS

CONTINUING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

AFTER THAT TIME, HOWEVER, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE BULK

OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DUE TO THE CYCLONE

INTERACTING WITH A CUT-OFF LOW NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A NOTABLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION SHOWING LITTLE

INVOLVEMENT WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW, WHICH RESULTS IN BLAS CONTINUING

WESTWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS

PREDICTION AND THIS TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LOW

CONFIDENCE AT THE LATTER FORECAST POINTS.



BLAS STILL HAS ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR=