WTPZ43 KNHC 052055 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016

200 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016



BLAS HAS THE CLASSIC APPEARANCE OF A POWERFUL HURRICANE IN SATELLITE

IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A 20 N MI WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A

SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WHICH IN TURN IS ALMOST SURROUNDED

BY OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115

KT FROM SAB AND 102 KT FROM TAFB, AND A RECENT CIMSS ADVANCED

DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE IS 110 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA, THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT, MAKING BLAS THE FIRST

MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.



BLAS CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF

275/14.  FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO, THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE

STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A DEEP-LAYER

RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS PORTION OF THE

NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  AFTER 72

HOURS, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE

DIVERGES.  THE GFS, UKMET, NAVGEM, AND CANADIAN MODELS TURN BLAS

NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW

CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  IN CONTRAST

TO THE OTHER MODELS, THE ECMWF FORECASTS THE LOW TO MOVE WESTWARD

WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING BETWEEN IT AND BLAS.  THUS, IT

FORECASTS BLAS TO TURN WESTWARD BY 120 HOURS.  THE NEW FORECAST

TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD TRACK IN SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

MOTION AT 96 AND 120 HOURS, WITH THE TRACK LYING BETWEEN THE ECMWF

AND THE OTHER MODELS.



BLAS SHOULD REMAIN IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATER FOR=