WTPZ43 KNHC 050234 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016

800 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016



BLAS IS GRADUALLY GAINING STRENGTH.  A RAGGED EYE HAS BEEN

OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE

INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE APPEARS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN

IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.  IN FACT, A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS

SHOWED AN EYE FEATURE WITHIN THE SYMMETRIC CDO.  THE LATEST

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND ADT VALUES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY

OF WISCONSIN SUPPORT RAISING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT.



THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS AS THE WIND SHEAR

IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 KT WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER AND A

CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

REMAINS AT THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THAT TIME AND CALLS

FOR BLAS TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS,

HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 26 C AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS, WHICH

SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING PHASE AND PROMOTE A STEADY WEAKENING

TREND. BLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE

END OF THE PERIOD WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES NEAR 24 C.



BLAS CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT ON THE

SOUTH SIDE OF A SPRAWLING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE

EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.  THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT

IN SHOWING A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 3

TO 4 DAYS WHILE THE RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM.=