WTPZ43 KNHC 041443 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016

900 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016



BLAS' CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE MASS OF COLD-TOPPED CENTRAL

CONVECTION AND A COUPLE OF FRAGMENTED OUTER BANDS.  A 1027 UTC SSM/I

PASS REVEALED A RAGGED MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE, BUT THE LOW-LEVEL

STRUCTURE APPEARED LESS ORGANIZED.  DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS

WERE T4.0/65 KT AND T4.5/77 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB, RESPECTIVELY.

TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY

IS SET AT 65 KT, THE LOW END OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 285/11.  THE TRACK

FORECAST REMAINS STRAIGHTFORWARD. BLAS IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED

ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING

WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES DURING

THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY

OF THE RIDGE BY DAYS 4-5, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN NEARLY

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD

AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF

MODELS DIVERGE SOME AFTER DAY 3.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT

DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST

ECMWF OWING TO THE FORECAST OF A STRONG HURRICANE, MORE LIKE THE GFS

SOLUTION INDICATES.



THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING BLAS IS CHARACTERIZED BY

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A RICH SUPPLY OF

MOISTURE.  COUPLED WITH WARM-ENOUGH WATERS, BLAS SHOULD INTENSIFY

INTO A LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

ONCE IT ESTABLISHES A BETTER ORGANIZED INNER CORE. THE NHC INTENSITY=