WTPZ43 KNHC 040854 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016

300 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016



DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF BLAS HAS

CHANGED FROM CONSISTING OF PRIMARILY A LONG CURVED BAND TO A LARGE

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE. RECENT AMSU DATA SHOWED THAT A

NEARLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 35 NMI

HAS ALSO DEVELOPED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CDO. A

0420 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 50 KT IN THE

NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 30 NMI.

UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES WERE NEAR 55 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN

INTENSITY OF 55 KT AT 0600 UTC. HOWEVER, SINCE THAT TIME THE

SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED, SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS

BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS A STEADY 285/10 KT. THERE IS NO

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING AND THE

LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED. THEREFORE,

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF

BLAS REMAINING STRONG THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE

NEW NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE AND

BASICALLY LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.



THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE

FAVORABLE FOR BLAS TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. SINCE

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING BLAS' OUTFLOW PATTERN TO GRADUALLY

EXPAND AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL, ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF

BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATOR OUTFLOW CHANNELS, A PERIOD OF RAPID=