WTPZ43 KNHC 030858 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016

300 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016



CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A LONG

CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION NOW WRAPS AT LEAST HALF WAY AROUND THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE

INCREASED AS RESULT, WITH TAFB COMING IN AT T2.5/35 KT AND SAB AT

T3.0/45 KT. THEREFORE, THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL

STORM BLAS.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12, BASED HEAVILY ON MICROWAVE

FIX POSITIONS. OVERALL, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. BLAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.  THIS

STABLE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP BLAS MOVING IN A GENERAL

WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS.

THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

TRACK, AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCE.



ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING

DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS BLAS MOVES OVER SSTS OF 29-30C AND

ENCOUNTERS DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS THAN 10 KT. THE

NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS BLAS BECOMING A HURRICANE ON MONDAY

AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO

BEGIN BY 96 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE STARTS TO MOVE OVER 26C OR

COOLER SEAS-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME COLD

UPWELLING OR MIXING BENEATH BLAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE

INTENSITY CONSENSUS IVCN, AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY=