WTPZ42 KNHC 021447 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016

800 AM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016



RECENT SSM/I AND AMSR-2 DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL

DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS BECOME CENTRALLY LOCATED IN THE CONVECTIVE

OVERCAST, AND FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CONVECTIVE

BURST NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200Z WERE

30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SINCE

THAT TIME AND A RECENT CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 35 KT, THE DEPRESSION

IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AGATHA, THE FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE

2016 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10.  A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE

NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD STEER IT GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR

24 HOURS OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  LATE IN THE

FORECAST PERIOD, A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS

THE REMNANTS OF AGATHA COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER

TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS

SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL

POSITION AND MOTION.  HOWEVER, IT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE VARIOUS

CONSENSUS MODELS.



SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12-24

HOURS WHILE AGATHA REMAINS IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT

OVER RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  BEYOND THAT TIME, A

COMBINATION OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING.  AGATHA IS EXPECTED

TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 48 HOURS, A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS,

AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 120 HOURS.=