WTIO31 PGTW 281500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 007//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 007

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   281200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 63.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 63.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   290000Z --- 20.1N 63.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   291200Z --- 19.8N 63.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

    ---

REMARKS:

281500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 63.3E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM EAST OF

MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS

A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING,

DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER BY THE

TROPICAL EASTERLY JET. A 281117Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC

IS BEGINNING TO ELONGATE INDICATING A WEAKENING TREND MAY BE

IMMINENT. THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH

CONFIDENCE BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 02A

IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES

OF T2.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL

FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (30 TO 40

KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING

SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO

THE NORTH AND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SECOND RIDGE BUILDING IN

FROM THE WEST. THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW

OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES.

TC 02A WILL BEGIN MAKING A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 12 AS IT

INTERACTS WITH ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW. TC 02A IS

FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO UNFAVORABLE VWS

CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE

OVERALL STEERING PATTERN LENDING TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC

FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 14

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//