WTIO31 PGTW 280900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 20.9N 63.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 63.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 20.5N 63.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 20.1N 63.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 19.9N 63.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 63.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER BY THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET. A 280239Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A WELL- DEFINED LLCC BUT ALSO SHOWS SHEARED CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION IS SUPPORTED WELL BY LATEST MSI IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF TC 02A IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SECOND RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. TC 02A HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE DURING DIURNAL MAX. THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES. TC 02A WILL BEGIN MAKING A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN BY TAU 36 AS IT INTERACTS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO THE HIGH VWS CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//