WTIO31 PGTW 270900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 21.8N 64.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 64.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 21.7N 63.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 21.7N 62.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 21.6N 61.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 21.3N 61.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 21.4N 62.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 64.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 270545Z MHS METOP- B 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FAIRLY DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED CENTER. A 270544Z ASCAT IMAGE, HOWEVER, SHOWS 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE, WHICH ALONG WITH A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET VWS AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. AFTER TAU 36, TC 02A SHOULD SLOW AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD DUE TO A STRONG STR ENTRENCHED OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS VWS INCREASES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW DECREASES. AFTER TAU 48, TC 02A WILL DISSIPATE AND THE REMNANTS WILL TRACK EASTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK AND SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WITH KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE TURN EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//