WTIO31 PGTW 270300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z --- NEAR 21.9N 65.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 65.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 21.8N 64.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 22.0N 63.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 22.2N 62.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 22.2N 61.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 21.7N 60.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 270300Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 65.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A GROWING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) OBSCURRING A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A MOSAIC OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES REVEALS A VIGOROUS BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS, AND INDICATES EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) MAY BE CAUSING A WESTWARD TILT. A 261718Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND A SYMMETRIC LLCC, AND THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SINCE THAT TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND A 270015Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION DUE TO THE CDO AND THE POOR REPRESENTATION OF THE LLCC IN THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 KTS, AND TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS WITH SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING CONVECTION. TC 02A IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, CAUSING A SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AS FOREWARD MOTION SLOWS. BEYOND TAU 48, STEERING WILL BE ASSUMED BY A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL AFRICA, CAUSING TC 02A TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. GOOD OUTFLOW WILL OFFSET MODERATE VWS TO ALLOW FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH TAU 36, AFTER WHICH THE VWS AND OUTFLOW CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER. VERY LIMITED GUIDANCE FOR THIS INITIAL FORECAST HAS A SIGNIFICANT TRACK SPREAD. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST REALISTIC IN ITS ANALYSIS OF THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CYCLONE, SO THE FORECAST IS BIASED TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z. //