WTPZ41 KNHC 072032 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016

400 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016



NUMEROUS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S DEEP

CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND

SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO, JUST NORTH OF THE SUSPECTED CENTER.  NO IN-SITU

OBSERVATIONS OF THE SYSTEM'S PEAK WINDS HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE, SO AN

18Z DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB IS THE BASIS

FOR MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.



IT AGAIN HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL

DEPRESSION.  THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SUGGESTIVE OF A TIGHT

LOW-LEVEL CENTER A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO, BEFORE MOVING UNDERNEATH THE

SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  ALSO A 1610Z ASCAT-B

SCATTEROMETER PASS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE

WAS CONSISTENT WITH A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER BEING

LOCATED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN

UNCERTAIN 50/5 WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEING STEERED PRIMARILY BY

THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH

OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHOULD FURTHER SLOW ITS

FORWARD MOTION AND EITHER DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OR

JUST INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST

IS NEAR THE TVCN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.



THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE SOUTHERLY

VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS AS WELL AS PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF

SOUTHERN MEXICO AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR INTO ITS CIRCULATION IS

LIKELY TO PREVENT INTENSIFICATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM.  ALL=