WTNT43 KNHC 070237 RRA

TCDAT3



TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016

1100 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016



SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT

THE CENTER OF COLIN IS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COASTLINE IN THE BIG

BEND REGION OF FLORIDA, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL VERY

SOON.  DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY

RAINFALL FROM THE CENTER OF COLIN, HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT

FOCUS ON THE TIME OR LOCATION OF LANDFALL, OR ON THE EXACT

FORECAST TRACK. HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG WINDS, AND COASTAL FLOODING

HAVE BEEN AFFECTING MUCH OF FLORIDA AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD

SPREAD NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.



THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 45 KT, UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT

WIND SPEEDS NEAR THIS VALUE ARE STILL BEING EXPERIENCED AT SOME

LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT COLIN WILL

DEEPEN WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC, PROBABLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC

ENERGETICS.  ALTHOUGH COLIN IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 24 HOURS, THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW IT FULLY

EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE, I.E. EXTRATROPICAL, UNTIL ABOUT 48

HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THIS SCENARIO.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/19.  COLIN SHOULD ACCELERATE

NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN

UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT, THE FORWARD

SPEED OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO SLOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH A

COUPLE OF OTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOWS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.



IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COLIN WILL PROBABLY LOSE ITS STATUS AS A=