WTNT43 KNHC 062048 RRA

TCDAT3



TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016

400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016



COLIN DOES NOT LOOK MUCH LIKE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SATELLITE

IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CENTER REMAINS WELL REMOVED FROM THE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA HAS

FOUND THE STRONGEST WINDS ABOUT 200 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE HIGHEST FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN

63 KT WITH SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 40 KT.  SINCE THE PLANE DID NOT

FULLY SAMPLE THE CONVECTIVE BAND, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT

45 KT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN THE

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE

INTERACTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS

CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE MIDWEST.  THE INTENSITY

FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24

TO 36 HOURS, THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

AFTER DAY 2.



COLIN'S INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 030/20 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES

ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATER TONIGHT

AND TUESDAY.  A CONTINUED RAPID NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AS

THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITHIN STRONG

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.  THE

TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING FIRST 24 TO 36 H, BUT

HAS SHIFTED NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT TIME. THE NHC FORECAST HAS

BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY, AND IS CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF.



DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM=